NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory / 2020 CGD Seminar Series

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Abstract:
Global mean warming is proportional to the total amount of CO2 emitted. This emergent property of the climate system, known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) provides the basis for the concept of carbon budgets for meeting different temperature target levels, such as the 1.5 °C target. Most of the CO2 emission pathways that reach the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature stabilization level in the long term are based on the assumption that emitting CO2 and removing it later by the implementation of artificial carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (CDR) leads to the same state of the climate system. However, a question remains whether the state of the carbon cycle differs among scenarios in which a given temperature level is achieved without overshoot or scenarios where that temperature level is temporarily exceeded and then resorted by CDR.


Remaining carbon budgets are also subject to different sources of uncertainty, such as the uncertainty in Earth System response to non-CO2 forcing, futurenon-CO2 scenario uncertainty, and uncertainties due to additional Earth System feedbacks currently under-represented in the Earth System models.


In this talk, I will present an integrated approach to quantification of uncertainties in the remaining carbon budgets (both geophysical and socio-economic), using observationally-constrained quantities. I will also explain the implications for the remaining carbon budget estimates in the light of the overall uncertainty, while emphasizing that despite those uncertainties, the implications remain the same: we need to reach net-zero emissions to stop warming.

2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Precious Mongwe of NCAR will be discussing "Climatic Controls on Metabolic Constraints in the Ocean"



For more information and to sign up for notifications, visit the main CGD Seminar Series webpage:
https://www.cgd.ucar.edu/events/seminars/

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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Peter Lauritzen of NCAR will be discussing "The Challenge of Energy Budget Closure in Earth System Models"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Cristian Proistosescu of University of Illinois will be discussing "The Fly in the Ointment: Coupled climate models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, resulting in weakened constraints on future warming"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Maike Sonnewald of Princeton will be discussing "Revealing mechanisms of change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global heating"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Scott Bachman and Gustavo Marques of NCAR will be discussing "Enabling Intelligent parameterizations through distributed, online inference with SmartSim: A case study simulating ocean eddy kinetic energy in MOM6"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Carlos J. Martinez of Columbia University will be discussing "Seasonal Climatology, Variability, and Temporal Characteristics of Caribbean Rainfall"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Deepak Cherian of NCAR discusses "Off-equatorial deep cycle turbulence forced by Tropical Instability Waves in the equatorial Pacific"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Paulette Blanchard of University of Kansas discusses "Centering Native Voices in Indigenous Sciences to Address Climate Change"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Dan Whitt of NCAR discusses "Exploring the impacts of circulation on biogeochemistry and ecosystems in a warming ocean"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Clara Deser and Adam Phillips of NCAR discuss "The NCAR Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for Large Ensembles"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


James Head of Brown University will be discussing "The Ancient Climate of Mars: Was the Ambient Climate 'Warm and Wet' or 'Cold and Icy'?"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Lantao Sun of Colorado State University will be discussing "Uncertainty in the winter atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss: the role of stratospheric internal variability"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Rober Jnglin Wills of University of Washington will be discussing "Slow Modes of Global Temperature Variability in Regions of Weak Radiative Feedbacks"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Nathan Mueller of Colorado State University will be discussing "Adapting agriculture to climate change"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Nachiketa Acharya of Columbia University will be discussing "Does Non-Gaussian Calibration Improve Multi-Model Seasonal Forecasts? "



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Darryn Waugh of Johns Hopkins University will be discussing "Revisiting trends in southern hemisphere westerlies and their impact on the oceans"



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2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Zane Martin of Colorado State University will be discussing "The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation: Observations and GCM modeling "


For more information and to sign up for notifications, visit the main CGD Seminar Series webpage:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/events/seminars/

2020-2021 CGD Seminar Series


Zane Martin of Colorado State University will be discussing "The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation: Observations and GCM modeling "


For more information and to sign up for notifications, visit the main CGD Seminar Series webpage:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/events/seminars/